Countdown to the regional elections in Galicia, which will be held on February 18th and will decide the political future of the region. In recent weeks, all published polls have positioned the Popular Party as the winner of the elections. Although initially not all of them guaranteed the 38 seats that the Popular candidate, Alfonso Rueda, must reach to achieve an absolute majority, the start of the electoral campaign has favored Feijóo's party. However, this is not reflected in the survey conducted by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), published on January 25th, in which Rueda would, at most, obtain 38 seats, achieving an absolute majority, although it would be a tight result to retain the presidency. In addition, the organization chaired by José Félix Tezanos gives possibilities to the left-wing bloc, as it would end up with 40 deputies, including 23 from the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) and 17 from the PSOE, seven more than the current ones, and Sumar could be added, which in the best of estimates gives it two seats and would break into the Xunta. On the other hand, Democracia Ourensana (DO), Gonzalo Pérez Jácome's party, would have one seat.

The rest of the barometers consulted by El Confidencial grant the Popular candidate between 39 and 42 deputies, more than an absolute majority, but they are not as optimistic for the left-wing bloc, with BNG, PSOE, and, in case of obtaining representation, Sumar, which has remained stagnant with a maximum of 36 representatives.

This is the case of the survey published by the newspaper El Mundo, conducted by Sigma Dos, which is the one that is closest to the current results, after the 2020 elections. Thus, Rueda would be president of the Xunta with 42 deputies, in the best-case scenario, followed by the BNG, with Ana Pontón as the candidate, with 20, and the PSOE with 15. In addition, Sumar would break into the regional parliament with one seat.

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Similar results are reflected in Onda Cero's Celeste-Tel survey, where the PP would win the elections with 40 seats, followed by the BNG with 20 and the PSOE with 14. Like El Mundo, Sumar, represented by Marta Lois, would secure one seat.

In the NC Report barometer for La Razón, the results follow the same trend. The Popular Party could potentially obtain 41 deputies, followed by the BNG with 20, the PSOE with 15, and Sumar with 1.

On the other hand, the poll published in ABC, conducted by GAD3, also shows an optimistic outcome for Feijóo's party, as they would maintain the top position with 40 deputies. Meanwhile, the BNG would remain the second force with four more seats, totaling 23, in contrast to the Socialists, led by José Ramón Gómez Besteiro, who would end up with 13. Thus, the left-wing bloc would have 36 seats.

However, in the Sociométrica barometer for El Español, the Popular Party would secure 39 seats, losing three compared to the current result, the same number that the Galician nationalists would gain, increasing from 19 to 22. Meanwhile, the Socialists would have the same result (14).

El Confidencial has compiled information from the main voter intention surveys for the Galician elections published in various media outlets. In the following graph, you can see the evolution of voter intention in the published surveys. Hover over it to see the specific data and use the party or polling firm filters to select the information you are interested in.

It is precisely in the regional media where Rueda's representation is lowest. In the survey conducted by Sondaxe for La Voz de Galicia, the left would have 35 representatives, including 20 from the BNG, 14 from the PSOE, and 1 from Díaz's party. Thus, they would be four seats behind the PP, with 39.

On the other hand, in Nòs Diario, with a survey by ElectoPanel, the PP would also have 39 deputies, but they could secure the seat awarded to Democracia Ourensana if they reached an agreement, thus distancing themselves from the left-wing bloc, which totals 35 including the 22 from the BNG and 13 from the PSOE.

In the case of the survey conducted by Hamalgama Métrica for Vozpópuli, there are some differences, as the PP would win the elections with 39 deputies, a narrower victory, followed by the BNG, which would not alter its current result, with 19, and the PSOE, which would increase by one, reaching 15. In addition, Sumar (1) and Vox (1) would enter the chamber.

In this other graph, you can see how the Galician parliament would look according to different seat estimates. Many polling firms publish seat ranges instead of a specific number to show more precisely the uncertainty surrounding seat estimation in elections. You can click on the bars to see the exact range in each case.

El Debate, through a Target Point survey, reflects a more hopeful result for Lois, who would secure two seats in the first elections in which Sumar participates. In addition, Democracia Ourensana would have one seat. Meanwhile, the PP would secure an absolute majority with 41, followed by the BNG with 21 and the PSOE with 14.

Meanwhile, Prisa, through the survey conducted by 40dB, gives the same results as four years ago: the PP would win the elections with 42 seats, followed by the nationalists with 19 and the PSOE with 14. Vox, Sumar, and Podemos, on the other hand, would have no representation in the Xunta.

It is worth noting that not all of the surveys analyzed by this media outlet give representation to Sumar, which is in a rather delicate position in these elections. Yolanda Díaz has chosen their spokesperson in Congress, Marta Lois, to be the candidate for the Xunta. Meanwhile, tension with Podemos remains. While the party initially agreed to run together with Sumar, it asked its members, and 62% voted to run separately. Thus, in most surveys, Podemos would not gain representation, while Sumar would secure a maximum of two seats, so they will have to use all their weapons in the electoral campaign.

As for Democracia Ourensana, the party of the controversial mayor of Ourense, the results are more discouraging. Armando Ojea, their candidate, would only secure one seat, according to the CIS and El Debate. The big question is how they can influence, especially in the PPdeG, as in the worst-case scenario for the Popular Party, DO could be the key to governing. Thus, sources from Feijóo's team assure that "they can subtract votes, but not seats," and they affirm that "the battle should not be considered won."